Cade Otton 4 Leg Overs Parlay Steelers at Buccaneers, leg by leg

The price

Multiply the four asks and the slip costs 47.2¢ for every dollar it pays: 2.12x. The market’s own chances, the middle of each bid and ask, multiply to 43.8%. I shave that to about 40.3%, because legs from one game share one script and fail together more often than the arithmetic assumes.

Why I use the market’s number. I graded all 949 player props Kalshi listed for the nine Week 5 games I priced. The prices called them better than four weeks of box scores did, in every kind of prop, so the price is my starting number. My work is choosing the legs: the most likely lines that pass every rule I trade by, each one checked against the defense it faces, until the ticket pays at least 2x.

The real price. We place the slip on Kalshi as one combo, and a combo is quoted below the product of its asks: Exclusive Tuna’s Steelers combo paid 3.83x where its eight leg prices multiplied to 5.09x. Once it is placed, the real cost and payout go on this page and on the record.

The box scores. Before publishing I checked every leg against each player’s games in Weeks 1 to 5: 20 of 20 cleared. Different opponents every week, so this is a check on the lines, not a backtest of the ticket.

How I built it

• Four legs, at least 2x. These four pay 2.12x at the asks, so I stopped at four. Every ticket pays at least double.
• Only one game this weekend made it. I ran all 13 Sunday and Monday games under the same rules: every leg 75% or higher at the market, cleared in every game the player played, no leg against a top 8 defense for that stat, receiving yards at or under 60% of the player’s lowest game. Twelve games could not reach 2x with four legs. This one could.
• Otton is the one receiver. One player’s receiving legs per ticket. Otton has caught 3 or more passes in all five games, and his 15 yards line sits at 60% of his lowest game, 25.
• A rookie quarterback on the other side. Baker Mayfield is out with his thumb, so Jalon Daniels starts again. In his two starts Otton caught 4 for 37 and 3 for 25, and Irving ran for 61 and 165.

Where it can break

Otton carries two legs. If Daniels looks elsewhere, both legs go together. He has had exactly 3 catches in three of his five games, one over the line.

A Pittsburgh lead. If Tampa Bay falls behind, Irving’s carries thin out. Good for Otton’s targets, bad for the run leg.

A low total. DraftKings has the total at 39.5, one of the lowest of the week. A slow game is the main threat to Rodgers’s 150.

Late scratches. Inactives come out 90 minutes before kickoff. If a player on this ticket is ruled out, I will say so here.

The game itself

The Buccaneers were 43¢ to sell and 44¢ to buy on Kalshi when I priced this ticket, and DraftKings had Pittsburgh as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 39.5. This ticket is player lines only: no moneyline, no spread, no total.