Emanuel Wilson 4 Leg TNF Overs Parlay Seahawks at Broncos, leg by leg

The price

Multiply the four asks and the slip costs 43.3¢ for every dollar it pays: 2.31x. The market’s own chances, the middle of each bid and ask, multiply to 41.9%. I shave that to about 38.6%, because legs from one game share one script and fail together more often than the arithmetic assumes.

Why I use the market’s number. I graded all 949 player props Kalshi listed for the nine Week 5 games I priced. The prices called them better than four weeks of box scores did, in every kind of prop, so the price is my starting number. My work is choosing the legs: the most likely lines that pass every rule I trade by, each one checked against the defense it faces, until the ticket pays at least 2x.

The real price. We place the slip on Kalshi as one combo, and a combo is quoted below the product of its asks: Exclusive Tuna’s Steelers combo paid 3.83x where its eight leg prices multiplied to 5.09x. Once it is placed, the real cost and payout go on this page and on the record.

The box scores. Before publishing I checked every leg against each player’s games in Weeks 1 to 5: 14 of 14 cleared. Different opponents every week, so this is a check on the lines, not a backtest of the ticket.

How I built it

• Four legs, at least 2x. These four pay 2.31x at the asks, so I stopped at four. Every ticket pays at least double.
• No receiving yards. A receiving-yards line now has to sit at or under 60% of the player’s lowest game. Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s lowest is 76, so his line would need to be 45 or under, and Kalshi’s lowest is 50. His 4+ catches cannot go on without a yards line to pair with it.
• Nothing against Seattle’s pass defense. Seattle allows 150.8 passing yards a game, the fewest in the league, so Bo Nix and the Denver receivers are off my board.
• Wilson’s lead-back weeks only. He had 2 and 9 carries as the backup in Weeks 1 and 3. I count the three games since he took over, and every one cleared both of his lines.

Where it can break

Wilson carries two legs. He lost a fumble on Sunday that the 49ers turned into a touchdown. If Seattle turns to George Holani, both legs go together.

A Denver lead. If Seattle falls behind, it throws more and Wilson’s carries thin out. Good for Darnold’s yards, bad for the ground legs.

The weather. Showers and wind were in Monday’s forecast for Denver. Rain helps the run legs more than Darnold’s.

Late scratches. Inactives come out 90 minutes before kickoff. If a player on this ticket is ruled out, I will say so here.

The game itself

The Broncos were 43¢ to sell and 44¢ to buy on Kalshi when I priced this ticket, and DraftKings had Seattle as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 40.5. This ticket is player lines only: no moneyline, no spread, no total.